On Monday, September 15, a series of optional full-day pre-conference workshops will be given by leading forecasting experts on a variety of topics. These workshops will allow for more in-depth discussion on key forecasting topics including:

 Basics of Time Series Forecasting
 Basics in Causal Modeling and Forecasting
 New Product Forecasting Tips and Tools

FULL DAY WORKSHOPS

Basics of Time Series Forecasting
This workshop provides an overview of time series forecasting, including a review of various forecasting models and how they are applied. Past Forecasting Summit attendees have told us that they are often torn when deciding which sessions to attend during the main conference—many don’t want to miss out on the outstanding Forecasting Seminar taught by Len, but also want to take advantage of the other sessions offered concurrently. By choosing to attend the Forecasting Seminar pre-conference workshop, you benefit from covering the majority of the Forecasting Seminar topics (all but Box-Jenkins and Dynamic Regression) prior to the main conference, giving you the freedom to attend other sessions during the main conference.

Len Tashman
Professor Emeritus
University of Vermont (UVM)

Basics in Causal Modeling and Forecasting
This workshop provides an overview of causal methods using time series data for forecasting, including a review of various causal forecasting models with a focus on how they are applied in real-world situations using actual data. Such methods as dynamic regression, ARIMA modeling with interventions and regressors, and a new method gaining popularity known as Unobserved Component Models (UCM) will be covered. SAS tools/applications will be used to demonstrate the power of causal modeling and forecasting.

Topics to be included:

 Introduction to multiple linear regression
 Autocorrelation (or Serial Correlation)
 Multicollinearity
 Multiple Regression forecasting
 Introduction to ARIMA modeling using the Box-Jenkins Methodology
 Introduction to Unobserved Components Models (UCM)

Charlie Chase
Business Enablement Manager
Manufacturing & Supply Chain Global Practice
SAS

New Product Forecasting Tips and Tools
While new product forecasting is certainly a challenge, it should NOT be viewed as mysterious. This course introduces the concept of new product forecasting to demystify the topic and exemplify how systematic thinking and a process approach can be manifested to achieve meaningful new product forecasts. Accordingly, the course begins with a discussion of key issues and considerations that make new product forecasting unique from regular product forecasting. We then demonstrate qualitative and quantitative techniques that can be applied to the new product forecasting context using case studies and case data. The course ends with a discussion of company experiences and industry benchmarks for the new product forecasting process. Hands-on application and forecasting management will be emphasized throughout the course. All workshop attendees will receive a complementary copy of Dr. Kahn’s book New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach.

Dr. Kenneth B. Kahn
Professor of Industrial Technology
Director of the Burton D. Morgan Center for Entrepreneurship
Purdue University

  Business Forecast Systems in cooperation with the International Institute of Forecasters