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In this session, Dr. Robinson will review typical new and short-history product forecasting models, highlighting their shortcomings. She will introduce some alternate methods for more effectively predicting new product demand which capture inherent business conditions and behaviors of analogous products. Finally, she will discuss the challenges of implementing these models in practice.
Anne Robinson, Ph. D.
Case Study: An Organic Cooperative Enhances Demand Forecasting
 raw materials with long lead-times (think crop cycles) a 98% in-stock rate mandated by business needs the need to be able to perform long-range “what-if” planning (e.g. sudden demand from large national retailer). Mr. Thomasson will guide you through the company’s journey that led them to install a new software solution, model promotional events, develop accuracy measurements, and implement process changes to gather dynamic inputs from Marketing, Sales, Purchasing and Operations.
Bill Thomasson
Measuring Forecast Improvement Efforts measurement issues; storing the significant amount of data necessary to track forecast accuracy across time; and aggregating the data at a meaningful level to reach conclusions about performance.
Mr. Hoover will also discuss other factors that can come into play once the systems are in place—such as economic downturns—which have a major impact on accuracy, and how to get the most from your forecast accuracy measurements.
Jim Hoover
Case Study: Forecasting Customer Satisfaction to Improve Service Quality You will learn how OI/Telemar: Creates times series using data obtained in customer satisfaction surveys, and looks for possible correlations between these series and company operational indicators. Forecasts the outcome of future satisfaction surveys, using models that incorporate explanatory operational indicators. Uses the satisfaction indicators obtained in the surveys to forecast the stock of equipments and financial results of the company.As a result of this forecasting effort, OI/Telemar can now take pro-active steps on new projects in anticipation of future customer needs.
Edmundo Eutrópio
Case Study: Forecasting Performance Management at the LEGO Group After two years of living with a performance measure and not just an error measure, LEGO is able to look back and evaluate what has been successful and what hasn’t. Furthermore, they can now look forward and consider new challenges within forecasting performance management, including identifying and quantifying the costs associated with poor forecasting performance. It has been a rewarding journey for LEGO, and one that is far from completed.
Lauge Valentin
Panel of Experts: Meeting Forecasting Challenges How do you effectively set up a forecasting team? Where is the best place for the forecasting function to reside – marketing, finance, operations?
Our company is trying to work from a single forecast for all groups – marketing, sales, finance and supply-chain. Is this realistic? What are the pitfalls? Upper management supplies a sales target. How do you forecast to avoid a “self-fulfilling prophesy”? How can a forecaster avoid being blamed for the failure of product sales to meet plan?
How do you forecast sales in a company whose promotional campaigns do not match the work months?
How can a company establish a target for forecast accuracy? How can a company steer between the pitfalls of (a) overly frequent forecast updates, thus introducing excessive variability and (b) failure to make timely updates, perhaps missing the market?
Moderator:
Improving Demand Planning and Forecasting at Honeywell Aerospace Air Transport & Regional Business & General Aviation Defense & Space
With operations at nearly 100 worldwide manufacturing and service sites, the SBUs face significant challenges to harness demand planning and forecasting. In this session, you will learn how the company transformed its processes—originally formulated by the SBU demand teams—into streamlined tools and systems at the corporate level. Within the last 15 months, SBU demand forecasts in the SIOP (Sales, Inventory & Operations Planning) process have been created for horizons of 24+ months, resulting in 15% improved accuracy in many business segments.
Mitch Malone More Sessions Coming Soon!
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Forecasting new products or products with very short history often poses a problem for traditional forecasting systems—the predicted demand tends to be either significantly over or under forecast. Furthermore, some of the implicit assumptions behind these commonly applied new product models often miss fundamental business rules and trends.
In this session, OI/Telemar—a Brazilian telecommunications company—will present a statistical-based forecasting system which predicts the results of regular satisfaction surveys. In addition, the system identifies the relationship between client behavior and perceived quality, and its impact on the company’s financial results.
Measuring forecasting performance is not as easy as it may seem. The shift from evaluating forecast errors to measuring forecasting performance challenges forecasters to think outside the box. In this session, Mr. Valentin will explain how the LEGO Group started such a project in mid-2006, describing a journey that that has required them to navigate the sometimes rough waters of change management and to implement lean principles.
This session gives you the opportunity to ask direct questions of a panel of internationally-recognized experts in business forecasting. The questions may address any aspect of forecasting, including the management of the forecasting function, organizational impediments to good forecasting practice, establishment of performance targets and methods and software appropriate for the company’s products. Here is a sampling of questions raised at the last Forecasting Summit:
Honeywell Aerospace is organized into strategic business units (SBUs) to service three key industry segments:
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